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TS-MULE: Local Interpretable Model-AgnosticExplanations for Time Series Forecast Models

U. Schlegel, D. L. Vo, D. A. Keim, D. Seebacher

Workshop on Advances in Interpretable Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence (AIMLAI) @ ECML-PKDD, 2021
Explainable Ai Xai Explainability Xaionts Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Time series forecasting is a demanding task ranging from weather to failure forecasting with black-box models achieving state-of-the-art performances. However, understanding and debugging are not guaranteed. We propose TS-MULE, a local surrogate model explanation method specialized for time series extending the LIME approach. Our extended LIME works with various ways to segment and perturb the time series data. In our extension, we present six sampling segmentation approaches for time series to improve the quality of surrogate attributions and demonstrate their performances on three deep learning model architectures and three common multivariate time series datasets.

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